**The US decision at the July 1, 2026 USMCA Free Trade Commission joint review not to extend the agreement in its current form is the dominant driver of the 78% “No” odds.** Mexico and Canada had signaled support for a 16-year renewal, but USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stated that Washington would not renew as-is, triggering the annual review process under Article 34.7.4 instead of an automatic extension to 2042. The agreement itself remains fully in force through its original July 1, 2036 expiration date, with the possibility of a later written extension by all three heads of government. However, the shift to yearly reviews, combined with ongoing bilateral talks focused on trade imbalances, autos, steel/aluminum tariffs, rules of origin, and non-trade issues such as migration and security, has created a protracted negotiation track unlikely to produce a revised extension before the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution date. Recent tariff actions by the Trump administration and the absence of any breakthrough announcements since the July 1 meeting reinforce trader consensus that a formal extension will not occur in calendar 2026. While Mexico has expressed optimism about eventual renewal (potentially within several years), near-term momentum favors the annual-review pathway over a swift trilateral agreement.
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The US decision at the July 1, 2026 USMCA Free Trade Commission joint review not to extend the agreement in its current form is the dominant driver of the 78% “No” odds.** Mexico and Canada had signaled support for a 16-year renewal, but USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stated that Washington would not renew as-is, triggering the annual review process under Article 34.7.4 instead of an automatic extension to 2042.
The agreement itself remains fully in force through its original July 1, 2036 expiration date, with the possibility of a later written extension by all three heads of government. However, the shift to yearly reviews, combined with ongoing bilateral talks focused on trade imbalances, autos, steel/aluminum tariffs, rules of origin, and non-trade issues such as migration and security, has created a protracted negotiation track unlikely to produce a revised extension before the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Recent tariff actions by the Trump administration and the absence of any breakthrough announcements since the July 1 meeting reinforce trader consensus that a formal extension will not occur in calendar 2026. While Mexico has expressed optimism about eventual renewal (potentially within several years), near-term momentum favors the annual-review pathway over a swift trilateral agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$9,769Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The US decision at the July 1, 2026 USMCA Free Trade Commission joint review not to extend the agreement in its current form is the dominant driver of the 78% “No” odds.** Mexico and Canada had signaled support for a 16-year renewal, but USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stated that Washington would not renew as-is, triggering the annual review process under Article 34.7.4 instead of an automatic extension to 2042.
The agreement itself remains fully in force through its original July 1, 2036 expiration date, with the possibility of a later written extension by all three heads of government. However, the shift to yearly reviews, combined with ongoing bilateral talks focused on trade imbalances, autos, steel/aluminum tariffs, rules of origin, and non-trade issues such as migration and security, has created a protracted negotiation track unlikely to produce a revised extension before the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution date.
Recent tariff actions by the Trump administration and the absence of any breakthrough announcements since the July 1 meeting reinforce trader consensus that a formal extension will not occur in calendar 2026. While Mexico has expressed optimism about eventual renewal (potentially within several years), near-term momentum favors the annual-review pathway over a swift trilateral agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,769Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The US decision at the July 1, 2026 USMCA Free Trade Commission joint review not to extend the agreement in its current form is the dominant driver of the 78% “No” odds.** Mexico and Canada had signaled support for a 16-year renewal, but USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stated that Washington would not renew as-is, triggering the annual review process under Article 34.7.4 instead of an automatic extension to 2042. The agreement itself remains fully in force through its original July 1, 2036 expiration date, with the possibility of a later written extension by all three heads of government. However, the shift to yearly reviews, combined with ongoing bilateral talks focused on trade imbalances, autos, steel/aluminum tariffs, rules of origin, and non-trade issues such as migration and security, has created a protracted negotiation track unlikely to produce a revised extension before the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution date. Recent tariff actions by the Trump administration and the absence of any breakthrough announcements since the July 1 meeting reinforce trader consensus that a formal extension will not occur in calendar 2026. While Mexico has expressed optimism about eventual renewal (potentially within several years), near-term momentum favors the annual-review pathway over a swift trilateral agreement.
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