Traders see the USD to Iranian rial exchange rate exceeding 2.2 million by end-September 2026 as the near-certain outcome, reflecting sustained high inflation, limited access to foreign reserves under sanctions, and ongoing pressure on the rial from monetary expansion and reduced oil export revenues. Recent diplomatic tensions and enforcement of export restrictions have reinforced expectations of continued depreciation, consistent with the historical pattern of sharp rial weakening during periods of elevated geopolitical risk. A major sanctions relief package, verified increase in crude sales, or credible domestic stabilization measures could narrow the gap, though such shifts would require verifiable policy changes within the resolution window to alter the current trader consensus.