Recent revocation of the June 60-day OFAC General License (GL X) authorizing Iranian oil production, delivery, and sales through August 21 has sharply reduced near-term prospects for reissuance. The July 7 action followed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing wind-down of authorized transactions by July 17 and reimposing sanctions amid fragile U.S.-Iran talks. This leaves limited window for a new waiver before the August 31 resolution date, with trader-implied odds reflecting low probability of swift reversal. Oil-market dynamics amplify caution: any relief would add Iranian barrels to global supply, pressuring WTI and Brent prices, yet Hormuz risks and renewed maximum-pressure sanctions have supported higher energy benchmarks. Broader factors include ongoing Treasury designations targeting Iran's shadow fleet and China trade networks, plus macroeconomic sensitivity to supply disruptions. No major new diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past month to shift the trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$225,006 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
7%
$225,006 Vol.
August 31
$136,125 Vol.
7%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.Recent revocation of the June 60-day OFAC General License (GL X) authorizing Iranian oil production, delivery, and sales through August 21 has sharply reduced near-term prospects for reissuance. The July 7 action followed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing wind-down of authorized transactions by July 17 and reimposing sanctions amid fragile U.S.-Iran talks. This leaves limited window for a new waiver before the August 31 resolution date, with trader-implied odds reflecting low probability of swift reversal.
Oil-market dynamics amplify caution: any relief would add Iranian barrels to global supply, pressuring WTI and Brent prices, yet Hormuz risks and renewed maximum-pressure sanctions have supported higher energy benchmarks. Broader factors include ongoing Treasury designations targeting Iran's shadow fleet and China trade networks, plus macroeconomic sensitivity to supply disruptions. No major new diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past month to shift the trajectory.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ET
Volume
$225,006Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.Recent revocation of the June 60-day OFAC General License (GL X) authorizing Iranian oil production, delivery, and sales through August 21 has sharply reduced near-term prospects for reissuance. The July 7 action followed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing wind-down of authorized transactions by July 17 and reimposing sanctions amid fragile U.S.-Iran talks. This leaves limited window for a new waiver before the August 31 resolution date, with trader-implied odds reflecting low probability of swift reversal.
Oil-market dynamics amplify caution: any relief would add Iranian barrels to global supply, pressuring WTI and Brent prices, yet Hormuz risks and renewed maximum-pressure sanctions have supported higher energy benchmarks. Broader factors include ongoing Treasury designations targeting Iran's shadow fleet and China trade networks, plus macroeconomic sensitivity to supply disruptions. No major new diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past month to shift the trajectory.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$225,006Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 8, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent revocation of the June 60-day OFAC General License (GL X) authorizing Iranian oil production, delivery, and sales through August 21 has sharply reduced near-term prospects for reissuance. The July 7 action followed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing wind-down of authorized transactions by July 17 and reimposing sanctions amid fragile U.S.-Iran talks. This leaves limited window for a new waiver before the August 31 resolution date, with trader-implied odds reflecting low probability of swift reversal. Oil-market dynamics amplify caution: any relief would add Iranian barrels to global supply, pressuring WTI and Brent prices, yet Hormuz risks and renewed maximum-pressure sanctions have supported higher energy benchmarks. Broader factors include ongoing Treasury designations targeting Iran's shadow fleet and China trade networks, plus macroeconomic sensitivity to supply disruptions. No major new diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged in the past month to shift the trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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