Recent UK economic data and Bank of England projections point to subdued Q3 2026 GDP growth amid the lingering effects of higher energy prices from Middle East developments. Q2 expanded 0.4% QoQ, but underlying momentum has weakened with slack in the labor market, moderating wage growth around 3.5%, and CPI rising to 2.9% in August largely on energy. BoE staff estimate underlying growth near 0% for Q3 as tighter financial conditions and uncertainty weigh on demand, aligning with independent forecasts clustering around 0.1-0.2% QoQ. Market-implied odds favoring the 0.2-0.3% band reflect this baseline while pricing in risks of further downside from persistent inflation pressures or upside from resilient services output ahead of the November first estimate.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0.2–0.3% 42%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 23%
0.6–0.7% 5.8%
$19,102 Vol.
$19,102 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
6%
0.0–0.1%
23%
0.2–0.3%
42%
0.4–0.5%
26%
0.6–0.7%
6%
0.8–0.9%
<1%
1.0%+
2%
0.2–0.3% 42%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 23%
0.6–0.7% 5.8%
$19,102 Vol.
$19,102 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$4,029 Vol.
6%
0.0–0.1%
$5,965 Vol.
23%
0.2–0.3%
$6,709 Vol.
42%
0.4–0.5%
$1,691 Vol.
26%
0.6–0.7%
$270 Vol.
6%
0.8–0.9%
$201 Vol.
<1%
1.0%+
$237 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK economic data and Bank of England projections point to subdued Q3 2026 GDP growth amid the lingering effects of higher energy prices from Middle East developments. Q2 expanded 0.4% QoQ, but underlying momentum has weakened with slack in the labor market, moderating wage growth around 3.5%, and CPI rising to 2.9% in August largely on energy. BoE staff estimate underlying growth near 0% for Q3 as tighter financial conditions and uncertainty weigh on demand, aligning with independent forecasts clustering around 0.1-0.2% QoQ. Market-implied odds favoring the 0.2-0.3% band reflect this baseline while pricing in risks of further downside from persistent inflation pressures or upside from resilient services output ahead of the November first estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$19,102Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK economic data and Bank of England projections point to subdued Q3 2026 GDP growth amid the lingering effects of higher energy prices from Middle East developments. Q2 expanded 0.4% QoQ, but underlying momentum has weakened with slack in the labor market, moderating wage growth around 3.5%, and CPI rising to 2.9% in August largely on energy. BoE staff estimate underlying growth near 0% for Q3 as tighter financial conditions and uncertainty weigh on demand, aligning with independent forecasts clustering around 0.1-0.2% QoQ. Market-implied odds favoring the 0.2-0.3% band reflect this baseline while pricing in risks of further downside from persistent inflation pressures or upside from resilient services output ahead of the November first estimate.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$19,102Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK economic data and Bank of England projections point to subdued Q3 2026 GDP growth amid the lingering effects of higher energy prices from Middle East developments. Q2 expanded 0.4% QoQ, but underlying momentum has weakened with slack in the labor market, moderating wage growth around 3.5%, and CPI rising to 2.9% in August largely on energy. BoE staff estimate underlying growth near 0% for Q3 as tighter financial conditions and uncertainty weigh on demand, aligning with independent forecasts clustering around 0.1-0.2% QoQ. Market-implied odds favoring the 0.2-0.3% band reflect this baseline while pricing in risks of further downside from persistent inflation pressures or upside from resilient services output ahead of the November first estimate.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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