Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russian S-400 systems, which U.S. law treats as incompatible with the stealth fighter due to technology security risks and CAATSA sanctions. Recent diplomatic engagement under the second Trump administration has revived talks, including direct appeals from President Erdogan and statements from U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack in late 2025 about ongoing discussions aimed at a potential breakthrough. However, a July 2026 State Department notification to Congress confirmed Turkey has not yet met required conditions, including relinquishing the S-400s. Congressional opposition, driven by security concerns and allied lobbying, adds procedural hurdles, while scheduled high-level meetings and any movement on sanctions relief remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities reflected in trader pricing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$28,822 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
11%
June 30, 2027
35%
$28,822 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$28,337 Vol.
11%
June 30, 2027
$485 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russian S-400 systems, which U.S. law treats as incompatible with the stealth fighter due to technology security risks and CAATSA sanctions. Recent diplomatic engagement under the second Trump administration has revived talks, including direct appeals from President Erdogan and statements from U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack in late 2025 about ongoing discussions aimed at a potential breakthrough. However, a July 2026 State Department notification to Congress confirmed Turkey has not yet met required conditions, including relinquishing the S-400s. Congressional opposition, driven by security concerns and allied lobbying, adds procedural hurdles, while scheduled high-level meetings and any movement on sanctions relief remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities reflected in trader pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$28,822Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russian S-400 systems, which U.S. law treats as incompatible with the stealth fighter due to technology security risks and CAATSA sanctions. Recent diplomatic engagement under the second Trump administration has revived talks, including direct appeals from President Erdogan and statements from U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack in late 2025 about ongoing discussions aimed at a potential breakthrough. However, a July 2026 State Department notification to Congress confirmed Turkey has not yet met required conditions, including relinquishing the S-400s. Congressional opposition, driven by security concerns and allied lobbying, adds procedural hurdles, while scheduled high-level meetings and any movement on sanctions relief remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities reflected in trader pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$28,822Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russian S-400 systems, which U.S. law treats as incompatible with the stealth fighter due to technology security risks and CAATSA sanctions. Recent diplomatic engagement under the second Trump administration has revived talks, including direct appeals from President Erdogan and statements from U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack in late 2025 about ongoing discussions aimed at a potential breakthrough. However, a July 2026 State Department notification to Congress confirmed Turkey has not yet met required conditions, including relinquishing the S-400s. Congressional opposition, driven by security concerns and allied lobbying, adds procedural hurdles, while scheduled high-level meetings and any movement on sanctions relief remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities reflected in trader pricing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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