The near-certain trader consensus against this outcome reflects the absence of any U.S. presidential authority to unilaterally alter the official designation of an international maritime chokepoint governed by multilateral conventions and recognized by the International Hydrographic Organization. Primary barriers include the requirement for coordinated diplomatic recognition among littoral states, established international naming protocols, and the lack of any announced executive action, legislative proposal, or policy priority indicating intent to pursue such a change. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities remain narrow, such as a limited symbolic U.S. domestic reference in federal documents or maps, though even these would face significant procedural and diplomatic hurdles before December 31.