Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) advanced from the October 4 first round with 45.52% of valid votes to face Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) at 43.94% in the October 25 runoff, after third-place Laurez Moreira (PSD) received roughly 8%. Recent polling, including a Directa survey from early October, shows Dorinha holding a modest edge of about 5–6 points in valid votes for the second round. The contest remains close due to low rejection rates for both frontrunners, a sizable share of voters still open to switching preferences, and the polarized nature of the race. Historical precedent in Tocantins indicates the first-round leader has prevailed in prior runoffs. Dorinha enters with a legislative majority secured in the concurrent elections for federal and state deputies, while both campaigns focus on adjusting alliances, turnout mobilization, and targeted appeals in the final weeks.