Traders view the race for third place in Text Arena Math by end of October as highly uncertain, with Google and Z.ai holding the strongest implied probabilities near 35 percent due to their targeted advances in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Recent model iterations from several labs have compressed performance gaps on tasks involving complex problem-solving and formal proofs, leaving the field open to incremental updates or new evaluations that could reorder standings. OpenAI trails at 16 percent, reflecting its broader capability priorities, while lower odds for labs like Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek highlight limited recent differentiation in this niche. Upcoming releases and benchmark cycles over the next six weeks remain key swing factors in this closely contested market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGoogle 37%
Z.ai 34.2%
OpenAI 19%
Alibaba 7%
$40,711 Vol.
$40,711 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
37%
Z.ai
34%
OpenAI
19%
Alibaba
7%
Moonshot
2%
Baidu
1%
Anthropic
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meituan
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meta
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 37%
Z.ai 34.2%
OpenAI 19%
Alibaba 7%
$40,711 Vol.
$40,711 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
$10,768 Vol.
37%
Z.ai
$2,257 Vol.
34%
OpenAI
$4,084 Vol.
19%
Alibaba
$10,623 Vol.
7%
Moonshot
$1,000 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$834 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$810 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$1,284 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$1,640 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$787 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$789 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$806 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$769 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$812 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$855 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$632 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$495 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$646 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$422 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$395 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for third place in Text Arena Math by end of October as highly uncertain, with Google and Z.ai holding the strongest implied probabilities near 35 percent due to their targeted advances in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Recent model iterations from several labs have compressed performance gaps on tasks involving complex problem-solving and formal proofs, leaving the field open to incremental updates or new evaluations that could reorder standings. OpenAI trails at 16 percent, reflecting its broader capability priorities, while lower odds for labs like Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek highlight limited recent differentiation in this niche. Upcoming releases and benchmark cycles over the next six weeks remain key swing factors in this closely contested market.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$40,711Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for third place in Text Arena Math by end of October as highly uncertain, with Google and Z.ai holding the strongest implied probabilities near 35 percent due to their targeted advances in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Recent model iterations from several labs have compressed performance gaps on tasks involving complex problem-solving and formal proofs, leaving the field open to incremental updates or new evaluations that could reorder standings. OpenAI trails at 16 percent, reflecting its broader capability priorities, while lower odds for labs like Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek highlight limited recent differentiation in this niche. Upcoming releases and benchmark cycles over the next six weeks remain key swing factors in this closely contested market.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$40,711Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the race for third place in Text Arena Math by end of October as highly uncertain, with Google and Z.ai holding the strongest implied probabilities near 35 percent due to their targeted advances in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Recent model iterations from several labs have compressed performance gaps on tasks involving complex problem-solving and formal proofs, leaving the field open to incremental updates or new evaluations that could reorder standings. OpenAI trails at 16 percent, reflecting its broader capability priorities, while lower odds for labs like Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek highlight limited recent differentiation in this niche. Upcoming releases and benchmark cycles over the next six weeks remain key swing factors in this closely contested market.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan