Recent model releases have tightened the race for third-best AI lab by end-October 2026, with Meta edging market-implied odds at 23.5% ahead of Google and OpenAI. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 introduced advanced cybersecurity and agentic capabilities, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 followed days later with strong benchmark gains in coding and tool use. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants and Alibaba’s Qwen updates highlight rapid iteration across US and Chinese labs. Traders weigh open-weight momentum, inference efficiency, and domain-specific performance against historical release timelines, noting that frontier large language model rankings remain fluid as new capabilities emerge before the October resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMeta 24%
Google 20%
OpenAI 18.6%
Alibaba 14%
$20,522 Vol.
$20,522 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
24%
20%
OpenAI
19%
Alibaba
14%
Tencent
11%
Moonshot
5%
Anthropic
4%
Z.ai
2%
Mistral
2%
ByteDance
2%
MiniMax
2%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
10%
Baidu
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
1%
Amazon
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Meta 24%
Google 20%
OpenAI 18.6%
Alibaba 14%
$20,522 Vol.
$20,522 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$744 Vol.
24%
$6,362 Vol.
20%
OpenAI
$2,495 Vol.
19%
Alibaba
$4,056 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$506 Vol.
11%
Moonshot
$509 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$311 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$359 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$506 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$468 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$543 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$487 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$455 Vol.
10%
Baidu
$333 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$330 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$353 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$354 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$347 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$316 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$309 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$373 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have tightened the race for third-best AI lab by end-October 2026, with Meta edging market-implied odds at 23.5% ahead of Google and OpenAI. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 introduced advanced cybersecurity and agentic capabilities, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 followed days later with strong benchmark gains in coding and tool use. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants and Alibaba’s Qwen updates highlight rapid iteration across US and Chinese labs. Traders weigh open-weight momentum, inference efficiency, and domain-specific performance against historical release timelines, noting that frontier large language model rankings remain fluid as new capabilities emerge before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$20,522Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have tightened the race for third-best AI lab by end-October 2026, with Meta edging market-implied odds at 23.5% ahead of Google and OpenAI. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 introduced advanced cybersecurity and agentic capabilities, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 followed days later with strong benchmark gains in coding and tool use. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants and Alibaba’s Qwen updates highlight rapid iteration across US and Chinese labs. Traders weigh open-weight momentum, inference efficiency, and domain-specific performance against historical release timelines, noting that frontier large language model rankings remain fluid as new capabilities emerge before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$20,522Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have tightened the race for third-best AI lab by end-October 2026, with Meta edging market-implied odds at 23.5% ahead of Google and OpenAI. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 introduced advanced cybersecurity and agentic capabilities, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 followed days later with strong benchmark gains in coding and tool use. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants and Alibaba’s Qwen updates highlight rapid iteration across US and Chinese labs. Traders weigh open-weight momentum, inference efficiency, and domain-specific performance against historical release timelines, noting that frontier large language model rankings remain fluid as new capabilities emerge before the October resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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