South Africa's annual inflation outlook for 2026 faces upward pressure from a prolonged oil price shock tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, which has lifted fuel and transport costs while pushing headline CPI to 4.4% in August. The South African Reserve Bank raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 7.25% through October and now sees inflation remaining elevated above 5% into early 2027, with average 2026 inflation projected at 4.4% but subject to upside risks from refinery margins, El Niño effects on food prices, and potential second-round effects in wages and services. These factors, reinforced in the October Monetary Policy Review and Governor Kganyago's recent remarks, have driven trader consensus toward the >5.0% outcome at 76.6% implied probability ahead of the November MPC meeting and October CPI release.