Morena holds the clearest edge in recent Sonora polling for the 2027 state congress contest, with party identification near 44-48% amid a fragmented opposition. PAN, MC, and PRI trail in the mid-to-high 20s or lower, preventing any single rival from consolidating anti-Morena support. The federal electoral process opened in early October 2026, but no major candidate announcements or legislative shifts have yet altered the baseline. Traders price the race accordingly, with Morena at 44% and the next tier clustered around 25-27%, underscoring how opposition division sustains competitive implied probabilities until clearer coalition signals or candidate lineups emerge closer to the June 2027 vote.