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Teknologi·AWS

Services Down Parlay

icon for Services Down Parlay
Teknologi·AWS

Services Down Parlay

6% peluang
Polymarket

$14,452 Vol.

6% peluang
Polymarket

$14,452 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfMajor cloud infrastructure providers maintain extensive redundancy, failover systems, and independent operational domains that make simultaneous critical outages across AWS, Discord, and Cloudflare an exceptionally rare conjunction. With the March 31, 2026 resolution deadline now passed and no verified critical incidents meeting all three criteria, the 93.8% market-implied probability for No captures trader consensus on this low-probability tail event. Isolated disruptions remain far more typical than coordinated failures, though realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes include a widespread cyberattack, major solar event, or cascading dependency failure impacting multiple platforms concurrently.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$14,452
Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfMajor cloud infrastructure providers maintain extensive redundancy, failover systems, and independent operational domains that make simultaneous critical outages across AWS, Discord, and Cloudflare an exceptionally rare conjunction. With the March 31, 2026 resolution deadline now passed and no verified critical incidents meeting all three criteria, the 93.8% market-implied probability for No captures trader consensus on this low-probability tail event. Isolated disruptions remain far more typical than coordinated failures, though realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes include a widespread cyberattack, major solar event, or cascading dependency failure impacting multiple platforms concurrently.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$14,452
Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Services Down Parlay" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 6% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 6¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 6% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Services Down Parlay" telah menghasilkan $14.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 11, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Services Down Parlay," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Services Down Parlay" adalah 6% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 6% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Services Down Parlay" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.