Recent above-normal rainfall in Minas Gerais, including the wettest early September in five seasons and continued showers into October, has supported coffee flowering and early fruit set while reducing immediate severe drought risk. A strengthening El Niño, projected to rank among the strongest on record, introduces uncertainty by favoring irregular rainfall patterns and potential dry spells through the critical November window for fruit development. Official monitoring shows soil moisture remains favorable in key arabica zones, though model consensus varies on late-season deficits. These mixed signals—recent precipitation offsetting El Niño-driven volatility—explain the closely matched trader odds across moderate drought categories, with resolution hinging on upcoming NOAA and INMET forecast updates.