OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and ongoing deliberations over a potential 2026–2027 debut underpin the dispersed market-implied odds, with the 1.5T+ tranche leading at 32.6% amid expectations of premium AI-sector multiples. Recent private funding rounds have valued the company between roughly $730B and $852B, supported by rapid ChatGPT and API revenue expansion, yet analysts note execution risks from competition, regulatory scrutiny, and profitability timelines that could compress closing market cap into the 1T–1.25T range (20.4%). The 9.5% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects timing uncertainty following internal shifts toward a later listing, while lower tranches capture scenarios of tempered growth or broader market de-rating.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1.5T+ 32.6%
1T–1.25T 20.4%
1.25T–1.5T 19%
750B–1T 12%
$83,407 Vol.
$83,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
4%
750B–1T
12%
1T–1.25T
20%
1.25T–1.5T
19%
1.5T+
33%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
10%
1.5T+ 32.6%
1T–1.25T 20.4%
1.25T–1.5T 19%
750B–1T 12%
$83,407 Vol.
$83,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$5,721 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$8,096 Vol.
4%
750B–1T
$8,975 Vol.
12%
1T–1.25T
$13,581 Vol.
20%
1.25T–1.5T
$7,763 Vol.
19%
1.5T+
$20,040 Vol.
33%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$19,231 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and ongoing deliberations over a potential 2026–2027 debut underpin the dispersed market-implied odds, with the 1.5T+ tranche leading at 32.6% amid expectations of premium AI-sector multiples. Recent private funding rounds have valued the company between roughly $730B and $852B, supported by rapid ChatGPT and API revenue expansion, yet analysts note execution risks from competition, regulatory scrutiny, and profitability timelines that could compress closing market cap into the 1T–1.25T range (20.4%). The 9.5% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects timing uncertainty following internal shifts toward a later listing, while lower tranches capture scenarios of tempered growth or broader market de-rating.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$83,407Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and ongoing deliberations over a potential 2026–2027 debut underpin the dispersed market-implied odds, with the 1.5T+ tranche leading at 32.6% amid expectations of premium AI-sector multiples. Recent private funding rounds have valued the company between roughly $730B and $852B, supported by rapid ChatGPT and API revenue expansion, yet analysts note execution risks from competition, regulatory scrutiny, and profitability timelines that could compress closing market cap into the 1T–1.25T range (20.4%). The 9.5% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects timing uncertainty following internal shifts toward a later listing, while lower tranches capture scenarios of tempered growth or broader market de-rating.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$83,407Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and ongoing deliberations over a potential 2026–2027 debut underpin the dispersed market-implied odds, with the 1.5T+ tranche leading at 32.6% amid expectations of premium AI-sector multiples. Recent private funding rounds have valued the company between roughly $730B and $852B, supported by rapid ChatGPT and API revenue expansion, yet analysts note execution risks from competition, regulatory scrutiny, and profitability timelines that could compress closing market cap into the 1T–1.25T range (20.4%). The 9.5% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects timing uncertainty following internal shifts toward a later listing, while lower tranches capture scenarios of tempered growth or broader market de-rating.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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