OPEC maintains active coordination through recent production adjustments and monthly oil market reports, with key members including Saudi Arabia reaffirming commitments to market stability in early May 2026 despite the UAE's exit effective May 1. Ongoing OPEC+ meetings, output quota revisions amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict, and updated 2026 demand forecasts underscore the organization's continued role in influencing global crude supply dynamics and benchmark pricing. This operational continuity drives the 92.5% market-implied probability against dissolution by year-end. Realistic challenges could emerge from additional major member exits or escalated geopolitical fractures altering cartel incentives, though no such developments have materialized to date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$28,800 Vol.
$28,800 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$28,800 Vol.
$28,800 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains active coordination through recent production adjustments and monthly oil market reports, with key members including Saudi Arabia reaffirming commitments to market stability in early May 2026 despite the UAE's exit effective May 1. Ongoing OPEC+ meetings, output quota revisions amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict, and updated 2026 demand forecasts underscore the organization's continued role in influencing global crude supply dynamics and benchmark pricing. This operational continuity drives the 92.5% market-implied probability against dissolution by year-end. Realistic challenges could emerge from additional major member exits or escalated geopolitical fractures altering cartel incentives, though no such developments have materialized to date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$28,800Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains active coordination through recent production adjustments and monthly oil market reports, with key members including Saudi Arabia reaffirming commitments to market stability in early May 2026 despite the UAE's exit effective May 1. Ongoing OPEC+ meetings, output quota revisions amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict, and updated 2026 demand forecasts underscore the organization's continued role in influencing global crude supply dynamics and benchmark pricing. This operational continuity drives the 92.5% market-implied probability against dissolution by year-end. Realistic challenges could emerge from additional major member exits or escalated geopolitical fractures altering cartel incentives, though no such developments have materialized to date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,800Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC maintains active coordination through recent production adjustments and monthly oil market reports, with key members including Saudi Arabia reaffirming commitments to market stability in early May 2026 despite the UAE's exit effective May 1. Ongoing OPEC+ meetings, output quota revisions amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict, and updated 2026 demand forecasts underscore the organization's continued role in influencing global crude supply dynamics and benchmark pricing. This operational continuity drives the 92.5% market-implied probability against dissolution by year-end. Realistic challenges could emerge from additional major member exits or escalated geopolitical fractures altering cartel incentives, though no such developments have materialized to date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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