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Politik·Primer

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politik·Primer

NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Adriano Espaillat 52%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 41%

Oscar Romero 4.0%

Theo Chino-Tavarez 1.1%

Polymarket

$14,689 Vol.

Adriano Espaillat 52%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 41%

Oscar Romero 4.0%

Theo Chino-Tavarez 1.1%

Polymarket

$14,689 Vol.

Adriano Espaillat

$3,366 Vol.

52%

Darializa Avila Chevalier

$1,611 Vol.

41%

Oscar Romero

$3,853 Vol.

4%

Theo Chino-Tavarez

$1,310 Vol.

1%

James Felton Keith

$1,299 Vol.

1%

Matt Miller

$1,344 Vol.

<1%

Megan Rodriguez

$1,051 Vol.

<1%

Jaleel Amador

$854 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat leads trader consensus at 60% implied probability in the NY-13 Democratic primary, buoyed by name recognition, $1 million cash on hand, and established coalition turnout in the D+32 district spanning upper Manhattan and the Bronx. A new internal poll for challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, released April 20 and conducted March 25-30 among 598 likely voters, shows Espaillat at 42% versus her 28%—with Avila surging to 46% after messaging—highlighting his soft support amid the district's leftward shift, evidenced by Zohran Mamdani's dominant 2025 primary win here. Avila's progressive endorsements from DSA, Justice Democrats, UAW, and ex-Rep. Jamaal Bowman, plus her Q1 fundraising edge ($270,000 raised), fuel her 33% odds, while others trail on low visibility ahead of the June 23 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$14,689
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 23, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat leads trader consensus at 60% implied probability in the NY-13 Democratic primary, buoyed by name recognition, $1 million cash on hand, and established coalition turnout in the D+32 district spanning upper Manhattan and the Bronx. A new internal poll for challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, released April 20 and conducted March 25-30 among 598 likely voters, shows Espaillat at 42% versus her 28%—with Avila surging to 46% after messaging—highlighting his soft support amid the district's leftward shift, evidenced by Zohran Mamdani's dominant 2025 primary win here. Avila's progressive endorsements from DSA, Justice Democrats, UAW, and ex-Rep. Jamaal Bowman, plus her Q1 fundraising edge ($270,000 raised), fuel her 33% odds, while others trail on low visibility ahead of the June 23 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$14,689
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 23, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 8 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Adriano Espaillat" di 52%, diikuti oleh "Darializa Avila Chevalier" di 41%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 52¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 52% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" telah menghasilkan $14.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 19, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner," jelajahi 8 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" adalah "Adriano Espaillat" di 52%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 52% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Darializa Avila Chevalier" di 41%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.