The protracted pace of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Jerusalem District Court trial on charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust across Cases 1000, 2000, and 4000 underpins the 70% implied probability that he will not be convicted by the December 31, 2027 resolution date. Netanyahu completed his defense testimony in June 2026 after 98 hearings, with the prosecution’s cross-examination having ended earlier that month; the case has now shifted to remaining defense witnesses before closing arguments. Judges have repeatedly flagged evidentiary difficulties with the sole bribery allegation in Case 4000 and suggested it be dropped, a stance unchanged after extensive testimony. Additional recent hearings, including former attorney general Avichai Mandelblit’s October 2026 appearance, have not accelerated the timeline. With a verdict potentially extending into 2028 or beyond, the absence of a final ruling by the market’s cutoff strongly favors resolution to “No,” even absent any plea or dismissal.