Polymarket traders reflect deep uncertainty in Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close pricing, with a 47% implied probability for below $23,500 narrowly ahead of clustered 36–39% odds across $25,000–$30,500 bins, despite the index hovering near 26,600. Heightened 2026 recession risks—spurred by yield curve signals and AI capex fatigue—weigh on sentiment, offsetting robust Q1 earnings growth averaging 20% for NDX components that drove last week's 6.8% rally. Competitive dynamics hinge on swing factors like May FOMC guidance on Fed funds path, April CPI trajectory, and Q2 tech revenue revisions, where dovish policy or sustained AI spending could favor upside bins while persistent inflation tips toward downside.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$23,500-$25,000 71%
$25,000-$26,500 42%
$30,500-$33,000 41%
$28,500-$30,500 39%
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
47%
$23,500-$25,000
71%
$25,000-$26,500
42%
$26,500-$28,500
38%
$28,500-$30,500
39%
$30,500-$33,000
41%
$33,000-$36,000
37%
>$36,000
40%
$23,500-$25,000 71%
$25,000-$26,500 42%
$30,500-$33,000 41%
$28,500-$30,500 39%
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
$0 Vol.
47%
$23,500-$25,000
$10 Vol.
71%
$25,000-$26,500
$0 Vol.
42%
$26,500-$28,500
$0 Vol.
38%
$28,500-$30,500
$0 Vol.
39%
$30,500-$33,000
$0 Vol.
41%
$33,000-$36,000
$0 Vol.
37%
>$36,000
$42 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders reflect deep uncertainty in Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close pricing, with a 47% implied probability for below $23,500 narrowly ahead of clustered 36–39% odds across $25,000–$30,500 bins, despite the index hovering near 26,600. Heightened 2026 recession risks—spurred by yield curve signals and AI capex fatigue—weigh on sentiment, offsetting robust Q1 earnings growth averaging 20% for NDX components that drove last week's 6.8% rally. Competitive dynamics hinge on swing factors like May FOMC guidance on Fed funds path, April CPI trajectory, and Q2 tech revenue revisions, where dovish policy or sustained AI spending could favor upside bins while persistent inflation tips toward downside.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Volume
$52Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders reflect deep uncertainty in Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close pricing, with a 47% implied probability for below $23,500 narrowly ahead of clustered 36–39% odds across $25,000–$30,500 bins, despite the index hovering near 26,600. Heightened 2026 recession risks—spurred by yield curve signals and AI capex fatigue—weigh on sentiment, offsetting robust Q1 earnings growth averaging 20% for NDX components that drove last week's 6.8% rally. Competitive dynamics hinge on swing factors like May FOMC guidance on Fed funds path, April CPI trajectory, and Q2 tech revenue revisions, where dovish policy or sustained AI spending could favor upside bins while persistent inflation tips toward downside.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$52Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders reflect deep uncertainty in Nasdaq 100 (NDX) December 2026 close pricing, with a 47% implied probability for below $23,500 narrowly ahead of clustered 36–39% odds across $25,000–$30,500 bins, despite the index hovering near 26,600. Heightened 2026 recession risks—spurred by yield curve signals and AI capex fatigue—weigh on sentiment, offsetting robust Q1 earnings growth averaging 20% for NDX components that drove last week's 6.8% rally. Competitive dynamics hinge on swing factors like May FOMC guidance on Fed funds path, April CPI trajectory, and Q2 tech revenue revisions, where dovish policy or sustained AI spending could favor upside bins while persistent inflation tips toward downside.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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