Jake Johnson holds a narrow 323-vote lead over incumbent Republican Brad Finstad in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District following the November 3, 2026 general election, with all precincts reporting and roughly 99 percent of ballots counted. The outcome remains unofficial pending the state canvassing board’s certification on November 19 and a likely recount, which Minnesota law funds automatically for margins under 0.25 percent. Johnson gained ground through strong urban performance in Rochester, Mankato, and Winona combined with modest rural shifts relative to prior Democratic results in the district. Heavy outside spending from national Democratic groups in the campaign’s final weeks and a broader midterm environment favoring Democrats contributed to the flip of a seat previously held by Republicans by double-digit margins. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Johnson a commanding position, though certification delays or recount adjustments represent the primary remaining variables that could alter the result.