**Robert Kenyon leads the "Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place" market at 88% implied probability, far ahead of Andy Burnham at 11.9%, with all other candidates below 1%.** The by-election, held on 18 June 2026 after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to clear a path for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, pits Burnham (Labour) against Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor who finished second in the seat at the 2024 general election. Polls in the final week showed Burnham leading but in a tight race, with Reform close behind and other parties (Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens) well back. Kenyon's strong local profile, Reform's prior showing in Makerfield, and national momentum for the party position him as the clear runner-up in trader consensus. Burnham is priced for first place, while minor candidates lack the polling or structural support to challenge for second. The contest's national stakes, tied to potential Labour leadership implications, have focused attention on the top two.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiRobert Kenyon 100.0%
Andy Burnham <1%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
John Skipworth <1%
$454,406 Vol.
$454,406 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
Andy Burnham
No
Simon Finkelstein
No
John Skipworth
No
Maria Deery
No
Rebecca Shepherd
No
James Thomas Bryer
No
Robert Kenyon
Yes
Robert Kenyon 100.0%
Andy Burnham <1%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
John Skipworth <1%
$454,406 Vol.
$454,406 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
Andy Burnham
$6,594 Vol.
No
Simon Finkelstein
$1,374 Vol.
No
John Skipworth
$1,215 Vol.
No
Maria Deery
$788 Vol.
No
Rebecca Shepherd
$431,123 Vol.
No
James Thomas Bryer
$1,158 Vol.
No
Robert Kenyon
$12,155 Vol.
Yes
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).**Robert Kenyon leads the "Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place" market at 88% implied probability, far ahead of Andy Burnham at 11.9%, with all other candidates below 1%.**
The by-election, held on 18 June 2026 after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to clear a path for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, pits Burnham (Labour) against Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor who finished second in the seat at the 2024 general election. Polls in the final week showed Burnham leading but in a tight race, with Reform close behind and other parties (Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens) well back. Kenyon's strong local profile, Reform's prior showing in Makerfield, and national momentum for the party position him as the clear runner-up in trader consensus. Burnham is priced for first place, while minor candidates lack the polling or structural support to challenge for second. The contest's national stakes, tied to potential Labour leadership implications, have focused attention on the top two.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Pasar Dibuka: May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$454,406Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).**Robert Kenyon leads the "Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place" market at 88% implied probability, far ahead of Andy Burnham at 11.9%, with all other candidates below 1%.**
The by-election, held on 18 June 2026 after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to clear a path for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, pits Burnham (Labour) against Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor who finished second in the seat at the 2024 general election. Polls in the final week showed Burnham leading but in a tight race, with Reform close behind and other parties (Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens) well back. Kenyon's strong local profile, Reform's prior showing in Makerfield, and national momentum for the party position him as the clear runner-up in trader consensus. Burnham is priced for first place, while minor candidates lack the polling or structural support to challenge for second. The contest's national stakes, tied to potential Labour leadership implications, have focused attention on the top two.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Volume
$454,406Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
**Robert Kenyon leads the "Makerfield by-election: 2nd Place" market at 88% implied probability, far ahead of Andy Burnham at 11.9%, with all other candidates below 1%.** The by-election, held on 18 June 2026 after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to clear a path for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, pits Burnham (Labour) against Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and councillor who finished second in the seat at the 2024 general election. Polls in the final week showed Burnham leading but in a tight race, with Reform close behind and other parties (Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens) well back. Kenyon's strong local profile, Reform's prior showing in Makerfield, and national momentum for the party position him as the clear runner-up in trader consensus. Burnham is priced for first place, while minor candidates lack the polling or structural support to challenge for second. The contest's national stakes, tied to potential Labour leadership implications, have focused attention on the top two.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan