Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's ongoing pretrial proceedings in New York federal court on narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges underpin the wide-open market, with traders pricing a 34.5% implied probability for a 60+ year sentence reflecting the charges' potential life term amid a superseding January 2026 indictment. No prison time at 23% accounts for defense arguments on head-of-state immunity, funding disputes now resolved in late April, and the narcoterrorism statute's spotty trial record. Shorter sentences like 20–40 years (15.6%) factor in possible plea deals or partial convictions. Recent trial delay to June hearings sustains uncertainty, while potential cooperating witnesses like ex-general Hugo Carvajal could bolster prosecution, consolidating odds toward conviction if evidence holds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWaktu Penjara Maduro?
Waktu Penjara Maduro?
60+ 35%
Tidak ada hukuman penjara 23%
20–40 15.6%
40–60 13%
$506,592 Vol.
$506,592 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Tidak ada hukuman penjara
23%
<20
5%
20–40
16%
40–60
13%
60+
35%
60+ 35%
Tidak ada hukuman penjara 23%
20–40 15.6%
40–60 13%
$506,592 Vol.
$506,592 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Tidak ada hukuman penjara
$373,300 Vol.
23%
<20
$37,509 Vol.
5%
20–40
$47,931 Vol.
16%
40–60
$15,752 Vol.
13%
60+
$32,099 Vol.
35%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's ongoing pretrial proceedings in New York federal court on narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges underpin the wide-open market, with traders pricing a 34.5% implied probability for a 60+ year sentence reflecting the charges' potential life term amid a superseding January 2026 indictment. No prison time at 23% accounts for defense arguments on head-of-state immunity, funding disputes now resolved in late April, and the narcoterrorism statute's spotty trial record. Shorter sentences like 20–40 years (15.6%) factor in possible plea deals or partial convictions. Recent trial delay to June hearings sustains uncertainty, while potential cooperating witnesses like ex-general Hugo Carvajal could bolster prosecution, consolidating odds toward conviction if evidence holds.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$506,592Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's ongoing pretrial proceedings in New York federal court on narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges underpin the wide-open market, with traders pricing a 34.5% implied probability for a 60+ year sentence reflecting the charges' potential life term amid a superseding January 2026 indictment. No prison time at 23% accounts for defense arguments on head-of-state immunity, funding disputes now resolved in late April, and the narcoterrorism statute's spotty trial record. Shorter sentences like 20–40 years (15.6%) factor in possible plea deals or partial convictions. Recent trial delay to June hearings sustains uncertainty, while potential cooperating witnesses like ex-general Hugo Carvajal could bolster prosecution, consolidating odds toward conviction if evidence holds.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$506,592Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's ongoing pretrial proceedings in New York federal court on narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, and weapons charges underpin the wide-open market, with traders pricing a 34.5% implied probability for a 60+ year sentence reflecting the charges' potential life term amid a superseding January 2026 indictment. No prison time at 23% accounts for defense arguments on head-of-state immunity, funding disputes now resolved in late April, and the narcoterrorism statute's spotty trial record. Shorter sentences like 20–40 years (15.6%) factor in possible plea deals or partial convictions. Recent trial delay to June hearings sustains uncertainty, while potential cooperating witnesses like ex-general Hugo Carvajal could bolster prosecution, consolidating odds toward conviction if evidence holds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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