US federal authorities captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 raid and charged him with narco-terrorism, cocaine trafficking, weapons offenses, and, in a new October indictment, torture of detained Americans. His trial is scheduled for June 2027, with defense motions pending on head-of-state immunity and jurisdictional issues that could lead to dismissal. Traders assign a 55.5% probability to no prison time, reflecting uncertainty over acquittal, plea outcomes, or procedural resolution before sentencing, while the 29% chance of 60+ years aligns with maximum penalties on multiple counts if convicted. Recent addition of torture charges has heightened pressure without materially shifting near-term resolution prospects.