Recent model consensus and station observations positioned 14°C as the leading implied outcome for Mexico City’s September 17 low, reflecting typical late-rainy-season conditions at 2,240 m elevation where radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies often produces overnight minima near 12–15°C. High pressure and light northerly flow limited stronger cooling, while urban heat-island effects and residual moisture kept temperatures from dropping to the 6°C-or-below range priced at 42.5%. Historical September averages of roughly 10°C minima provided context, yet recent data releases showing 13–16°C lows reinforced trader focus on the 14°C and 12–13°C bands. Updated forecasts from official monitoring agencies are expected to clarify final resolution criteria.