Short-term forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate overnight lows of 25–27°C for July 15 amid typical July humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that suppress radiational cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and urban heat retention further anchor minima near the 26°C mark, while clearer intervals could allow brief drops toward 25°C. Seasonal outlooks confirm normal-to-above-normal July temperatures under ongoing warming trends, with historical July minima rarely dipping below 24°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25–27°C band because model consensus shows narrow uncertainty ranges, with new daily forecast updates expected to refine steering patterns and precipitation timing before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$51,120 Vol.
$51,120 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$51,120 Vol.
$51,120 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
22°C or below
$3,612 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,836 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,296 Vol.
No
25°C
$11,501 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$12,273 Vol.
No
27°C
$7,563 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,297 Vol.
No
29°C
$810 Vol.
No
30°C
$719 Vol.
No
31°C
$202 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$3,013 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Short-term forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate overnight lows of 25–27°C for July 15 amid typical July humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that suppress radiational cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and urban heat retention further anchor minima near the 26°C mark, while clearer intervals could allow brief drops toward 25°C. Seasonal outlooks confirm normal-to-above-normal July temperatures under ongoing warming trends, with historical July minima rarely dipping below 24°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25–27°C band because model consensus shows narrow uncertainty ranges, with new daily forecast updates expected to refine steering patterns and precipitation timing before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$51,120Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Short-term forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate overnight lows of 25–27°C for July 15 amid typical July humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that suppress radiational cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and urban heat retention further anchor minima near the 26°C mark, while clearer intervals could allow brief drops toward 25°C. Seasonal outlooks confirm normal-to-above-normal July temperatures under ongoing warming trends, with historical July minima rarely dipping below 24°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25–27°C band because model consensus shows narrow uncertainty ranges, with new daily forecast updates expected to refine steering patterns and precipitation timing before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,120Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Short-term forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate overnight lows of 25–27°C for July 15 amid typical July humidity, light winds, and scattered showers that suppress radiational cooling overnight. Persistent cloud cover and urban heat retention further anchor minima near the 26°C mark, while clearer intervals could allow brief drops toward 25°C. Seasonal outlooks confirm normal-to-above-normal July temperatures under ongoing warming trends, with historical July minima rarely dipping below 24°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25–27°C band because model consensus shows narrow uncertainty ranges, with new daily forecast updates expected to refine steering patterns and precipitation timing before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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