Recent Israeli polls place Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party in the low-to-mid 20s Knesset seats, aligning with the tightest market bands around 22-23. A fragmented proportional system, volatile weekly surveys showing swings of several seats, and persistent deadlock between Netanyahu-aligned and opposition Zionist blocs keep probabilities concentrated below 25 while leaving room for lower outcomes. Neither camp consistently reaches a 61-seat majority, and smaller parties plus turnout among swing voters could shift final tallies. With the October 27 vote days away, late campaign developments or turnout patterns remain the main variables that could separate the leading seat ranges.