Recent polling averages place Shas at roughly 7–8 Knesset seats, consistent with the market’s leading 6–9 ranges, as the ultra-Orthodox party maintains steady support within its core Haredi electorate ahead of the October 27 election. Aryeh Deri’s recent statement that Shas will not join a future government without Haredi draft exemptions has underscored the party’s negotiating leverage inside the outgoing Netanyahu-aligned bloc, while broader coalition shortfalls near 50 seats keep its seat total sensitive to overall right-religious turnout and surplus-vote agreements with United Torah Judaism. Minor weekly fluctuations across pollsters reflect stable but not expanding Haredi mobilization, with the 3.25% threshold and bloc dynamics limiting upside or downside moves until final voter participation is confirmed.