Recent polling for the Reservists–New Economic Party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, has shown persistent volatility near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 vote. Multiple surveys from Maariv, Channel 12, and Channel 14 project four Knesset seats, while others such as Direct Polls/i24 place support around 2.3%. This inconsistency, combined with the party's emphasis on universal conscription, reservist benefits, and market-oriented economic measures, underpins trader consensus favoring a sub-2.75% outcome. Small-party fragmentation, bloc dynamics, and surplus-vote agreements add further uncertainty in the final weeks.
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