President Donald Trump has kept the possibility of invoking the Insurrection Act open through repeated public statements, including a late-September 2026 TIME interview where he declined to rule it out around the November midterms while noting many supporters urge its use for civil disorder or law enforcement. The administration has instead relied on other authorities, such as 10 U.S.C. § 12406, to federalize National Guard units for immigration enforcement and protests in cities including Chicago, Los Angeles, and Portland, though the Supreme Court narrowed some applications in Trump v. Illinois. No invocation has occurred since 1992. Trader pricing reflects the absence of qualifying unrest or formal announcements to date, alongside legal constraints under statutes like 18 U.S.C. § 592 on military presence at polling sites and ongoing congressional efforts to add oversight. Key near-term catalysts include midterm voting, any escalation in urban protests, or further administration directives on border security and election integrity.