The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 69 percent share in the 2024 general election, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Mike Quigley secured the Democratic primary in March 2026 against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a low-profile primary field. No significant polling shifts, fundraising surges, or national political developments have altered the race's fundamentals since then. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad Republican national wave, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among suburban voters, though historical results in this Chicago-area district suggest such shifts would require exceptional conditions to overcome the structural advantage.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,430 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$1,493 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 69 percent share in the 2024 general election, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Mike Quigley secured the Democratic primary in March 2026 against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a low-profile primary field. No significant polling shifts, fundraising surges, or national political developments have altered the race's fundamentals since then. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad Republican national wave, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among suburban voters, though historical results in this Chicago-area district suggest such shifts would require exceptional conditions to overcome the structural advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$8,922Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 69 percent share in the 2024 general election, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Mike Quigley secured the Democratic primary in March 2026 against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a low-profile primary field. No significant polling shifts, fundraising surges, or national political developments have altered the race's fundamentals since then. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad Republican national wave, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among suburban voters, though historical results in this Chicago-area district suggest such shifts would require exceptional conditions to overcome the structural advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,922Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 69 percent share in the 2024 general election, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Mike Quigley secured the Democratic primary in March 2026 against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a low-profile primary field. No significant polling shifts, fundraising surges, or national political developments have altered the race's fundamentals since then. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a broad Republican national wave, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among suburban voters, though historical results in this Chicago-area district suggest such shifts would require exceptional conditions to overcome the structural advantage.
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