Ongoing US-Iran blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels, and periodic attacks have kept commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suppressed well below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 85-130 daily transits. For the week of August 17, 2026, AIS and tracker data from Kpler, UKMTO, and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity crossings mostly in single digits amid rerouting, dark transits, and enforcement, yielding a weekly total that aligns precisely with the 25-49 bin. This positioning reflects trader assessment of sustained energy-market frictions, including Brent crude near $88-94 amid constrained throughput of 4-7 million barrels per day, without near-term catalysts for sharp recovery or total shutdown. A breakthrough in stalled peace talks or reduced enforcement could lift volumes above 50, while intensified strikes or full corridor closures remain the primary downside risks to the current range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
25-49 100.0%
<25 <1%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$67,444 Vol.
$67,444 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<25
No
25-49
Yes
50-74
No
75-99
No
100+
No
25-49 100.0%
<25 <1%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$67,444 Vol.
$67,444 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<25
$23,616 Vol.
No
25-49
$19,417 Vol.
Yes
50-74
$13,450 Vol.
No
75-99
$7,229 Vol.
No
100+
$3,733 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels, and periodic attacks have kept commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suppressed well below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 85-130 daily transits. For the week of August 17, 2026, AIS and tracker data from Kpler, UKMTO, and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity crossings mostly in single digits amid rerouting, dark transits, and enforcement, yielding a weekly total that aligns precisely with the 25-49 bin. This positioning reflects trader assessment of sustained energy-market frictions, including Brent crude near $88-94 amid constrained throughput of 4-7 million barrels per day, without near-term catalysts for sharp recovery or total shutdown. A breakthrough in stalled peace talks or reduced enforcement could lift volumes above 50, while intensified strikes or full corridor closures remain the primary downside risks to the current range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Volume
$67,444Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels, and periodic attacks have kept commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suppressed well below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 85-130 daily transits. For the week of August 17, 2026, AIS and tracker data from Kpler, UKMTO, and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity crossings mostly in single digits amid rerouting, dark transits, and enforcement, yielding a weekly total that aligns precisely with the 25-49 bin. This positioning reflects trader assessment of sustained energy-market frictions, including Brent crude near $88-94 amid constrained throughput of 4-7 million barrels per day, without near-term catalysts for sharp recovery or total shutdown. A breakthrough in stalled peace talks or reduced enforcement could lift volumes above 50, while intensified strikes or full corridor closures remain the primary downside risks to the current range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$67,444Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Ongoing US-Iran blockades, elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of 40 times normal levels, and periodic attacks have kept commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz suppressed well below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 85-130 daily transits. For the week of August 17, 2026, AIS and tracker data from Kpler, UKMTO, and IMF PortWatch show daily commodity crossings mostly in single digits amid rerouting, dark transits, and enforcement, yielding a weekly total that aligns precisely with the 25-49 bin. This positioning reflects trader assessment of sustained energy-market frictions, including Brent crude near $88-94 amid constrained throughput of 4-7 million barrels per day, without near-term catalysts for sharp recovery or total shutdown. A breakthrough in stalled peace talks or reduced enforcement could lift volumes above 50, while intensified strikes or full corridor closures remain the primary downside risks to the current range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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