Trump's approval rating has declined steadily through 2026 to recent averages of 34-38 percent across major trackers, with individual polls recording lows near 30-34 percent amid net negatives of -20 to -25. The resumption of U.S. strikes on Iran in mid-July and resulting public backlash over the conflict's costs, including higher energy prices, have contributed to the drop alongside persistent concerns over inflation and economic management. With the 2026 midterms approaching, polling shows voters increasingly viewing the contest through the lens of opposition to the administration's record, though partisan divides remain wide and approval among Republicans stays relatively firm. These dynamics, including scheduled legislative and diplomatic developments, shape trader assessments of potential further dips before year-end.