**Trader consensus clusters Green support tightly between 25% and 35% because local results and national trends point to a competitive but contained performance.** The May 2026 Camden council elections showed Greens reaching 27–29% across the constituency wards against Labour on 33–39%, narrowing the gap from the 2024 general election where Greens polled 10.4%. Zack Polanski’s candidacy as party leader has raised visibility and mobilised progressive and student voters on issues such as housing, rent controls and foreign policy, yet Labour’s position has strengthened nationally under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, with several recent months of polling gains. Projections from models such as PollCheck and Electoral Calculus place Greens between 24% and 38%, while the presence of Workers Party candidate George Galloway risks fragmenting the left-leaning vote. With no fresh constituency poll and the contest framed as a two-horse race heading into polling day on 8 October, these offsetting factors—local momentum versus broader Labour recovery—keep the most probable Green share in the narrow 25–35% bands reflected in current market pricing.