Ensemble forecasts from major models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS have converged on a Warsaw high of 21°C for August 18, driven by westerly advection of cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and possible showers that limit surface heating and boundary-layer mixing. This setup produces a cool anomaly relative to the long-term August climatology of 23–26°C maxima. Real-time surface observations and short-range model runs on the day of the event will confirm the precise peak. A later frontal passage or reduced cloudiness could allow modest additional warming and shift the outcome, while stronger showers or earlier cooling would reinforce the current market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 18?
21°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$57,786 Vol.
$57,786 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$57,786 Vol.
$57,786 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
14°C or below
$290 Vol.
No
15°C
$678 Vol.
No
16°C
$3,837 Vol.
No
17°C
$3,462 Vol.
No
18°C
$9,548 Vol.
No
19°C
$10,572 Vol.
No
20°C
$12,194 Vol.
No
21°C
$6,465 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$5,176 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,071 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$2,492 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from major models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS have converged on a Warsaw high of 21°C for August 18, driven by westerly advection of cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and possible showers that limit surface heating and boundary-layer mixing. This setup produces a cool anomaly relative to the long-term August climatology of 23–26°C maxima. Real-time surface observations and short-range model runs on the day of the event will confirm the precise peak. A later frontal passage or reduced cloudiness could allow modest additional warming and shift the outcome, while stronger showers or earlier cooling would reinforce the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$57,786Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from major models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS have converged on a Warsaw high of 21°C for August 18, driven by westerly advection of cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and possible showers that limit surface heating and boundary-layer mixing. This setup produces a cool anomaly relative to the long-term August climatology of 23–26°C maxima. Real-time surface observations and short-range model runs on the day of the event will confirm the precise peak. A later frontal passage or reduced cloudiness could allow modest additional warming and shift the outcome, while stronger showers or earlier cooling would reinforce the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$57,786Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Ensemble forecasts from major models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS have converged on a Warsaw high of 21°C for August 18, driven by westerly advection of cooler maritime air, extensive cloud cover, and possible showers that limit surface heating and boundary-layer mixing. This setup produces a cool anomaly relative to the long-term August climatology of 23–26°C maxima. Real-time surface observations and short-range model runs on the day of the event will confirm the precise peak. A later frontal passage or reduced cloudiness could allow modest additional warming and shift the outcome, while stronger showers or earlier cooling would reinforce the current market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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