**Official meteorological observations confirm a daily maximum of 22°C in Toronto on September 6, 2026, producing the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Environment and Climate Change Canada station data, corroborated by nearby sites such as Pearson International Airport, recorded afternoon peaks reaching but not exceeding this threshold under partly cloudy skies and light northwesterly flow. Historical September averages near 23–24°C provide context, yet the specific synoptic pattern that day—modest onshore influence and limited solar heating—kept readings capped at the observed level. With the date now past, resolution hinges solely on verified station maxima; only a documented data revision or station malfunction could alter the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given multiple cross-checked reports.