**Strong observational data from Shenzhen meteorological stations and short-range forecast models underpin the near-certain market consensus on a 30°C daily maximum.** Real-time measurements through the afternoon showed temperatures climbing steadily under partly cloudy skies with light easterly winds, peaking near the 30°C threshold without exceeding it, consistent with National Meteorological Center guidance for the date. This aligns with typical mid-September subtropical conditions in the region, where daytime highs often stabilize around 30–32°C absent stronger southerly flow or clear-sky heating. Minor model spreads in afternoon guidance introduce limited uncertainty, primarily around exact station reporting or brief localized warming, though no data releases expected overnight would realistically shift the outcome.