Recent observational data and forecast verification from NOAA's Paris-Le Bourget station confirm a daytime maximum near 22°C under partly cloudy skies and northwest flow after frontal passage, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. This aligns with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 22.4°C for early September and GFS model consensus projecting limited warming amid light winds and minimal precipitation risk. Trader positioning reflects high confidence in these conditions matching the resolution criteria. A shift in steering patterns allowing clearer skies or a delayed frontal influence could realistically push readings to 23°C or higher, though current model agreement and real-time measurements make such deviations unlikely before final verification.