Official observations from the National Weather Service at Central Park confirm a daily maximum of 79°F on September 5, 2026, placing the outcome squarely in the 78-79°F range and driving the market's 100% consensus there. This reading aligns with early-September climatology near 80°F but reflects a modest cooling influence from northerly flow and limited afternoon heating under mostly clear skies. Recent days showed variability, with highs of 82°F on the 1st and 84°F on the 3rd before the peak settled one degree below normal. The result matches historical patterns for the date and leaves little room for alternative bins, though minor station discrepancies or measurement timing could theoretically shift edge cases in lower-probability scenarios.