The market's near-certain 30°C outcome reflects the Hong Kong Observatory's official maximum air temperature reading for September 7, 2026, which aligned precisely with that threshold under partly cloudy conditions and light winds. Climatological norms for early September place average highs near 30.8°C, and the day's observed peak matched this baseline without notable deviation from regional model guidance or heat advisories. With the date now resolved, trader consensus rests on verified station data rather than forecasts, though minor uncertainty could arise from station-specific microclimates or post-processing revisions—scenarios that remain improbable given consistent reporting protocols.