Official temperature observations from Chicago's primary reporting station recorded a daily maximum of 78–79°F on August 18, anchoring the 100% market-implied probability for that bin. Regional surface analysis showed modest daytime heating under weak high pressure, with dew points and cloud cover limiting convective development and keeping readings near seasonal normals around 82°F. Traders priced in this outcome based on real-time station data and model consensus from NOAA guidance, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of measurement thresholds. An unexpected station calibration error or post-event data revision remains the only realistic scenario that could alter resolution, though such adjustments are infrequent for established Midwest sites.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Chicago on August 18?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 18?
78-79°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$35,746 Vol.
$35,746 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
71°F or below
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
Yes
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90°F or higher
No
78-79°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$35,746 Vol.
$35,746 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
71°F or below
$25 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$233 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$3,162 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$1,265 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$11,483 Vol.
Yes
80-81°F
$5,275 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$7,036 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$4,508 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$2,246 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$413 Vol.
No
90°F or higher
$100 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official temperature observations from Chicago's primary reporting station recorded a daily maximum of 78–79°F on August 18, anchoring the 100% market-implied probability for that bin. Regional surface analysis showed modest daytime heating under weak high pressure, with dew points and cloud cover limiting convective development and keeping readings near seasonal normals around 82°F. Traders priced in this outcome based on real-time station data and model consensus from NOAA guidance, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of measurement thresholds. An unexpected station calibration error or post-event data revision remains the only realistic scenario that could alter resolution, though such adjustments are infrequent for established Midwest sites.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$35,746Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official temperature observations from Chicago's primary reporting station recorded a daily maximum of 78–79°F on August 18, anchoring the 100% market-implied probability for that bin. Regional surface analysis showed modest daytime heating under weak high pressure, with dew points and cloud cover limiting convective development and keeping readings near seasonal normals around 82°F. Traders priced in this outcome based on real-time station data and model consensus from NOAA guidance, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of measurement thresholds. An unexpected station calibration error or post-event data revision remains the only realistic scenario that could alter resolution, though such adjustments are infrequent for established Midwest sites.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$35,746Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Official temperature observations from Chicago's primary reporting station recorded a daily maximum of 78–79°F on August 18, anchoring the 100% market-implied probability for that bin. Regional surface analysis showed modest daytime heating under weak high pressure, with dew points and cloud cover limiting convective development and keeping readings near seasonal normals around 82°F. Traders priced in this outcome based on real-time station data and model consensus from NOAA guidance, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of measurement thresholds. An unexpected station calibration error or post-event data revision remains the only realistic scenario that could alter resolution, though such adjustments are infrequent for established Midwest sites.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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