Redistricting by Florida’s Republican-led legislature has shifted FL-09 toward the GOP by adding Republican-leaning counties in south-central Florida and diluting prior Democratic advantages, producing a district with roughly 41% registered Republicans versus 29% Democrats. Dan Green, a Navy veteran and former Trump Defense Department appointee, secured the Republican nomination in an August 2026 primary and benefits from strong party alignment in the revised map. Incumbent Darren Soto, a five-term Democrat previously viewed as vulnerable, faces a narrower path in the altered electorate. Multiple forecasts rate the contest Lean or Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus that places Green well ahead of Soto ahead of the November 3 general election.