In Louisiana's 1st congressional district, a solidly Republican seat with an R+19 to R+20 partisan voting index, incumbent Steve Scalise faces limited opposition from Republican Randall Arrington, Democrat Lauren Jewett, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3 all-party primary. Scalise's strong 2024 performance and consistent double-digit margins in the district underpin trader expectations of a majority outcome. The shift to an open primary format following the Supreme Court's ruling on congressional maps has not introduced competitive dynamics capable of splitting the vote enough to force a December runoff. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability that one candidate clears 50% on the first ballot. No recent polling or endorsements have altered this assessment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFirst Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?
First Round Outright Winner in the LA-01 House Election?
95% peluang
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
95% peluang
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.In Louisiana's 1st congressional district, a solidly Republican seat with an R+19 to R+20 partisan voting index, incumbent Steve Scalise faces limited opposition from Republican Randall Arrington, Democrat Lauren Jewett, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3 all-party primary. Scalise's strong 2024 performance and consistent double-digit margins in the district underpin trader expectations of a majority outcome. The shift to an open primary format following the Supreme Court's ruling on congressional maps has not introduced competitive dynamics capable of splitting the vote enough to force a December runoff. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability that one candidate clears 50% on the first ballot. No recent polling or endorsements have altered this assessment.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,644Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.In Louisiana's 1st congressional district, a solidly Republican seat with an R+19 to R+20 partisan voting index, incumbent Steve Scalise faces limited opposition from Republican Randall Arrington, Democrat Lauren Jewett, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3 all-party primary. Scalise's strong 2024 performance and consistent double-digit margins in the district underpin trader expectations of a majority outcome. The shift to an open primary format following the Supreme Court's ruling on congressional maps has not introduced competitive dynamics capable of splitting the vote enough to force a December runoff. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability that one candidate clears 50% on the first ballot. No recent polling or endorsements have altered this assessment.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Volume
$1,644Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In Louisiana's 1st congressional district, a solidly Republican seat with an R+19 to R+20 partisan voting index, incumbent Steve Scalise faces limited opposition from Republican Randall Arrington, Democrat Lauren Jewett, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3 all-party primary. Scalise's strong 2024 performance and consistent double-digit margins in the district underpin trader expectations of a majority outcome. The shift to an open primary format following the Supreme Court's ruling on congressional maps has not introduced competitive dynamics capable of splitting the vote enough to force a December runoff. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability that one candidate clears 50% on the first ballot. No recent polling or endorsements have altered this assessment.
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