**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, and a divided FOMC have kept July–October rate paths closely contested.** The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike—the first such split since 2016—while economic activity remained solid with stable unemployment and strong productivity. This outcome leaves September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings as key swing points, where incoming CPI, PCE, and labor data plus any further geopolitical developments could tip the committee toward tightening. Futures markets currently price a gradual rise in the policy rate toward 3.8% by November, reflecting trader caution that the pause-pause-pause scenario (42% on Polymarket) faces meaningful competition from paths involving at least one hike. The narrow gap between the leading “Other” (48.5%) and all-pause outcomes underscores how sensitive probabilities remain to the next two data releases and FOMC communications.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOther 49%
Pause–Pause–Pause 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.0%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$666,101 Vol.
$666,101 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
42%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
49%
Other 49%
Pause–Pause–Pause 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.0%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$666,101 Vol.
$666,101 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$225,564 Vol.
42%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$51,147 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,993 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,525 Vol.
1%
Other
$290,384 Vol.
49%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, and a divided FOMC have kept July–October rate paths closely contested.** The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike—the first such split since 2016—while economic activity remained solid with stable unemployment and strong productivity. This outcome leaves September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings as key swing points, where incoming CPI, PCE, and labor data plus any further geopolitical developments could tip the committee toward tightening. Futures markets currently price a gradual rise in the policy rate toward 3.8% by November, reflecting trader caution that the pause-pause-pause scenario (42% on Polymarket) faces meaningful competition from paths involving at least one hike. The narrow gap between the leading “Other” (48.5%) and all-pause outcomes underscores how sensitive probabilities remain to the next two data releases and FOMC communications.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$666,101Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, and a divided FOMC have kept July–October rate paths closely contested.** The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike—the first such split since 2016—while economic activity remained solid with stable unemployment and strong productivity. This outcome leaves September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings as key swing points, where incoming CPI, PCE, and labor data plus any further geopolitical developments could tip the committee toward tightening. Futures markets currently price a gradual rise in the policy rate toward 3.8% by November, reflecting trader caution that the pause-pause-pause scenario (42% on Polymarket) faces meaningful competition from paths involving at least one hike. The narrow gap between the leading “Other” (48.5%) and all-pause outcomes underscores how sensitive probabilities remain to the next two data releases and FOMC communications.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$666,101Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, and a divided FOMC have kept July–October rate paths closely contested.** The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike—the first such split since 2016—while economic activity remained solid with stable unemployment and strong productivity. This outcome leaves September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings as key swing points, where incoming CPI, PCE, and labor data plus any further geopolitical developments could tip the committee toward tightening. Futures markets currently price a gradual rise in the policy rate toward 3.8% by November, reflecting trader caution that the pause-pause-pause scenario (42% on Polymarket) faces meaningful competition from paths involving at least one hike. The narrow gap between the leading “Other” (48.5%) and all-pause outcomes underscores how sensitive probabilities remain to the next two data releases and FOMC communications.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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