Strong August 2026 employment data, showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains versus expectations near 56,000 and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced views of labor-market resilience and shifted market-implied odds toward a firmer Federal Reserve policy path. Persistent inflation, with core PCE near 3.3% and headline readings elevated by tariffs and energy shocks, continues to anchor expectations that the FOMC will prioritize price stability over easing. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% and recent hawkish communications, including futures pricing a 61% chance of a September hike, support the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting while lifting the 23.5% odds of a 25-basis-point increase. Upcoming September CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 15–16 FOMC decision and subsequent labor and inflation prints, remain key catalysts that could alter the market’s rate-path assessment before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 61%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.8%
$62,166 Vol.
$62,166 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.8%
$62,166 Vol.
$62,166 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,099 Vol.
4%
25 bps decrease
$11,867 Vol.
14%
No change
$18,961 Vol.
61%
25 bps increase
$15,724 Vol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$2,515 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August 2026 employment data, showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains versus expectations near 56,000 and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced views of labor-market resilience and shifted market-implied odds toward a firmer Federal Reserve policy path. Persistent inflation, with core PCE near 3.3% and headline readings elevated by tariffs and energy shocks, continues to anchor expectations that the FOMC will prioritize price stability over easing. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% and recent hawkish communications, including futures pricing a 61% chance of a September hike, support the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting while lifting the 23.5% odds of a 25-basis-point increase. Upcoming September CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 15–16 FOMC decision and subsequent labor and inflation prints, remain key catalysts that could alter the market’s rate-path assessment before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$62,166Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 27, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong August 2026 employment data, showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains versus expectations near 56,000 and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced views of labor-market resilience and shifted market-implied odds toward a firmer Federal Reserve policy path. Persistent inflation, with core PCE near 3.3% and headline readings elevated by tariffs and energy shocks, continues to anchor expectations that the FOMC will prioritize price stability over easing. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% and recent hawkish communications, including futures pricing a 61% chance of a September hike, support the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting while lifting the 23.5% odds of a 25-basis-point increase. Upcoming September CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 15–16 FOMC decision and subsequent labor and inflation prints, remain key catalysts that could alter the market’s rate-path assessment before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$62,166Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 27, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong August 2026 employment data, showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains versus expectations near 56,000 and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced views of labor-market resilience and shifted market-implied odds toward a firmer Federal Reserve policy path. Persistent inflation, with core PCE near 3.3% and headline readings elevated by tariffs and energy shocks, continues to anchor expectations that the FOMC will prioritize price stability over easing. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% and recent hawkish communications, including futures pricing a 61% chance of a September hike, support the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the January 2027 meeting while lifting the 23.5% odds of a 25-basis-point increase. Upcoming September CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 15–16 FOMC decision and subsequent labor and inflation prints, remain key catalysts that could alter the market’s rate-path assessment before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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