Persistent inflation pressures, particularly from surging energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, and a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have shifted trader consensus toward additional tightening. The August 2026 CPI print showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly rise, while core CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, reinforcing concerns that disinflation has stalled. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50–3.75%, markets assign a 57.5% implied probability to a 25-basis-point hike at the December FOMC meeting versus 39.5% for no change. Strong labor market data and analyst forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan for consecutive quarter-point increases this fall further support the pricing. The September 15–16 meeting and updated dot plot represent the next key catalyst that could refine these odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 2.4%
$743,827 Vol.
$743,827 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
57%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 2.4%
$743,827 Vol.
$743,827 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$117,080 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$165,396 Vol.
3%
No change
$147,603 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$198,792 Vol.
57%
50+ bps increase
$114,956 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, particularly from surging energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, and a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have shifted trader consensus toward additional tightening. The August 2026 CPI print showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly rise, while core CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, reinforcing concerns that disinflation has stalled. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50–3.75%, markets assign a 57.5% implied probability to a 25-basis-point hike at the December FOMC meeting versus 39.5% for no change. Strong labor market data and analyst forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan for consecutive quarter-point increases this fall further support the pricing. The September 15–16 meeting and updated dot plot represent the next key catalyst that could refine these odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$743,827Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, particularly from surging energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, and a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have shifted trader consensus toward additional tightening. The August 2026 CPI print showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly rise, while core CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, reinforcing concerns that disinflation has stalled. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50–3.75%, markets assign a 57.5% implied probability to a 25-basis-point hike at the December FOMC meeting versus 39.5% for no change. Strong labor market data and analyst forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan for consecutive quarter-point increases this fall further support the pricing. The September 15–16 meeting and updated dot plot represent the next key catalyst that could refine these odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$743,827Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, particularly from surging energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, and a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have shifted trader consensus toward additional tightening. The August 2026 CPI print showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly rise, while core CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, reinforcing concerns that disinflation has stalled. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50–3.75%, markets assign a 57.5% implied probability to a 25-basis-point hike at the December FOMC meeting versus 39.5% for no change. Strong labor market data and analyst forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan for consecutive quarter-point increases this fall further support the pricing. The September 15–16 meeting and updated dot plot represent the next key catalyst that could refine these odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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