Polymarket traders price a 47.9% implied probability for Eurozone annual GDP growth of 0-1% in 2026, reflecting the April 30 Eurostat flash estimate showing Q1 2026 expansion at just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter—below the 0.2% consensus and decelerating from Q4 2025's 0.2%. This weak start, coupled with IMF and ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters revisions to 1.0-1.1% (down from prior 1.4%), underscores softening investment, consumption, and exports amid sticky services inflation curbing ECB rate cuts. A 27.8% chance of contraction highlights recession risks from labor market cooling, while 1.0-2.0% at 29% captures baseline forecasts; Q2 GDP and June ECB projections loom as pivotal catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1.0-2.0% 35%
0-1.0% 25.0%
2.0-3.0% 9%
<0% 7.2%
<0%
29%
0-1.0%
37%
1.0-2.0%
28%
2.0-3.0%
9%
3.0-4.0%
18%
4.0-5.0%
4%
5.0-6.0%
4%
6.0-7.0%
3%
7.0%+
2%
1.0-2.0% 35%
0-1.0% 25.0%
2.0-3.0% 9%
<0% 7.2%
<0%
29%
0-1.0%
37%
1.0-2.0%
28%
2.0-3.0%
9%
3.0-4.0%
18%
4.0-5.0%
4%
5.0-6.0%
4%
6.0-7.0%
3%
7.0%+
2%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 47.9% implied probability for Eurozone annual GDP growth of 0-1% in 2026, reflecting the April 30 Eurostat flash estimate showing Q1 2026 expansion at just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter—below the 0.2% consensus and decelerating from Q4 2025's 0.2%. This weak start, coupled with IMF and ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters revisions to 1.0-1.1% (down from prior 1.4%), underscores softening investment, consumption, and exports amid sticky services inflation curbing ECB rate cuts. A 27.8% chance of contraction highlights recession risks from labor market cooling, while 1.0-2.0% at 29% captures baseline forecasts; Q2 GDP and June ECB projections loom as pivotal catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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