The dismissal of Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI on May 18, 2026, drives the 97.9% market-implied probability against a $10 billion-plus settlement. A federal jury in Oakland unanimously found Musk’s claims barred by the statute of limitations after less than two hours of deliberation, prompting the judge to dismiss the case outright. This outcome followed a full trial on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its original nonprofit mission in favor of for-profit AI development, including large language model releases and competitive positioning. Musk has publicly labeled the ruling a “technicality” and signaled plans to appeal to the Ninth Circuit, yet the swift procedural rejection and lack of any ongoing settlement talks leave little room for a massive payout. An unexpected reversal on appeal or last-minute negotiated resolution remain the only plausible paths that could alter the current trader consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$167,292 Vol.
$167,292 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$167,292 Vol.
$167,292 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The dismissal of Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI on May 18, 2026, drives the 97.9% market-implied probability against a $10 billion-plus settlement. A federal jury in Oakland unanimously found Musk’s claims barred by the statute of limitations after less than two hours of deliberation, prompting the judge to dismiss the case outright. This outcome followed a full trial on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its original nonprofit mission in favor of for-profit AI development, including large language model releases and competitive positioning. Musk has publicly labeled the ruling a “technicality” and signaled plans to appeal to the Ninth Circuit, yet the swift procedural rejection and lack of any ongoing settlement talks leave little room for a massive payout. An unexpected reversal on appeal or last-minute negotiated resolution remain the only plausible paths that could alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$167,292Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The dismissal of Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI on May 18, 2026, drives the 97.9% market-implied probability against a $10 billion-plus settlement. A federal jury in Oakland unanimously found Musk’s claims barred by the statute of limitations after less than two hours of deliberation, prompting the judge to dismiss the case outright. This outcome followed a full trial on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its original nonprofit mission in favor of for-profit AI development, including large language model releases and competitive positioning. Musk has publicly labeled the ruling a “technicality” and signaled plans to appeal to the Ninth Circuit, yet the swift procedural rejection and lack of any ongoing settlement talks leave little room for a massive payout. An unexpected reversal on appeal or last-minute negotiated resolution remain the only plausible paths that could alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$167,292Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
The dismissal of Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI on May 18, 2026, drives the 97.9% market-implied probability against a $10 billion-plus settlement. A federal jury in Oakland unanimously found Musk’s claims barred by the statute of limitations after less than two hours of deliberation, prompting the judge to dismiss the case outright. This outcome followed a full trial on allegations that OpenAI abandoned its original nonprofit mission in favor of for-profit AI development, including large language model releases and competitive positioning. Musk has publicly labeled the ruling a “technicality” and signaled plans to appeal to the Ninth Circuit, yet the swift procedural rejection and lack of any ongoing settlement talks leave little room for a massive payout. An unexpected reversal on appeal or last-minute negotiated resolution remain the only plausible paths that could alter the current trader consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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