Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10 to April 17, 2026, driven by live tracking data from tools like XTracker confirming a final tally of 304 posts as of early April 17 EST, with the period now at 100% completion. This reflects his steady social media engagement pace of 43 posts per day—consistent with recent patterns amid viral discussions on Grok 4.3 beta capabilities, Neuralink advancements, and AI-driven universal income debates—without notable spikes or lulls over the past week. While overwhelming precursor counts cement the frontrunner, a realistic upset would require rare resolution disputes over post inclusions or uncounted replies, though traders see negligible risk given verified tallies and historical counting precedents.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui300-319 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$13,942,624 Vol.
$13,942,624 Vol.
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
No
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
No
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
Yes
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500-519
No
520-539
No
540-559
No
560-579
No
580+
No
300-319 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$13,942,624 Vol.
$13,942,624 Vol.
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
No
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
No
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
Yes
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500-519
No
520-539
No
540-559
No
560-579
No
580+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Sumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10 to April 17, 2026, driven by live tracking data from tools like XTracker confirming a final tally of 304 posts as of early April 17 EST, with the period now at 100% completion. This reflects his steady social media engagement pace of 43 posts per day—consistent with recent patterns amid viral discussions on Grok 4.3 beta capabilities, Neuralink advancements, and AI-driven universal income debates—without notable spikes or lulls over the past week. While overwhelming precursor counts cement the frontrunner, a realistic upset would require rare resolution disputes over post inclusions or uncounted replies, though traders see negligible risk given verified tallies and historical counting precedents.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan