Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp rises in euro-area energy prices, prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6 percent while maintaining a data-dependent stance. With the deposit facility rate at 2 percent, economist surveys and futures markets now price in at least one 25-basis-point hike this year, often two, to keep policy neutral amid upside inflation risks and subdued 0.9 percent growth. This shift from earlier expectations of steady or lower rates underpins the near-certain trader consensus on a 2026 increase. A rapid de-escalation that eases energy costs or unexpectedly weak demand could still delay or limit tightening, though current evidence points to persistent price pressures through year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$124,097 Vol.
$124,097 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$124,097 Vol.
$124,097 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp rises in euro-area energy prices, prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6 percent while maintaining a data-dependent stance. With the deposit facility rate at 2 percent, economist surveys and futures markets now price in at least one 25-basis-point hike this year, often two, to keep policy neutral amid upside inflation risks and subdued 0.9 percent growth. This shift from earlier expectations of steady or lower rates underpins the near-certain trader consensus on a 2026 increase. A rapid de-escalation that eases energy costs or unexpectedly weak demand could still delay or limit tightening, though current evidence points to persistent price pressures through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$124,097Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp rises in euro-area energy prices, prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6 percent while maintaining a data-dependent stance. With the deposit facility rate at 2 percent, economist surveys and futures markets now price in at least one 25-basis-point hike this year, often two, to keep policy neutral amid upside inflation risks and subdued 0.9 percent growth. This shift from earlier expectations of steady or lower rates underpins the near-certain trader consensus on a 2026 increase. A rapid de-escalation that eases energy costs or unexpectedly weak demand could still delay or limit tightening, though current evidence points to persistent price pressures through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$124,097Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven sharp rises in euro-area energy prices, prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 2.6 percent while maintaining a data-dependent stance. With the deposit facility rate at 2 percent, economist surveys and futures markets now price in at least one 25-basis-point hike this year, often two, to keep policy neutral amid upside inflation risks and subdued 0.9 percent growth. This shift from earlier expectations of steady or lower rates underpins the near-certain trader consensus on a 2026 increase. A rapid de-escalation that eases energy costs or unexpectedly weak demand could still delay or limit tightening, though current evidence points to persistent price pressures through year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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