Databricks' recent $188 billion private valuation from the Coatue-led strategic round closed in summer 2026, building on the prior $134 billion mark in December 2025 and reflecting a $5.4 billion revenue run rate with 65% year-over-year growth, supports elevated market-implied odds for no IPO by December 2027 at 62.5% alongside sub-$200 billion outcomes. CEO comments in June 2026 explicitly deferred public listing amid a crowded 2026 tech IPO calendar to preserve flexibility and employee liquidity options through private channels, consistent with ongoing system preparations but no binding timeline. These developments, paired with competitive pressures versus peers like Snowflake and robust enterprise AI demand, position the $150–200 billion bracket near 44.5% implied probability as the leading post-IPO scenario while underscoring uncertainty around exact resolution thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$150B-$200B 80%
<$150B 78%
$450B+ 77%
$400B-$450B 73%
<$150B
78%
$150B-$200B
80%
$200B-$250B
33%
$250B-$300B
33%
$300B-$350B
30%
$350B-$400B
29%
$400B-$450B
73%
$450B+
77%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
64%
$150B-$200B 80%
<$150B 78%
$450B+ 77%
$400B-$450B 73%
<$150B
78%
$150B-$200B
80%
$200B-$250B
33%
$250B-$300B
33%
$300B-$350B
30%
$350B-$400B
29%
$400B-$450B
73%
$450B+
77%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
64%
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Databricks' recent $188 billion private valuation from the Coatue-led strategic round closed in summer 2026, building on the prior $134 billion mark in December 2025 and reflecting a $5.4 billion revenue run rate with 65% year-over-year growth, supports elevated market-implied odds for no IPO by December 2027 at 62.5% alongside sub-$200 billion outcomes. CEO comments in June 2026 explicitly deferred public listing amid a crowded 2026 tech IPO calendar to preserve flexibility and employee liquidity options through private channels, consistent with ongoing system preparations but no binding timeline. These developments, paired with competitive pressures versus peers like Snowflake and robust enterprise AI demand, position the $150–200 billion bracket near 44.5% implied probability as the leading post-IPO scenario while underscoring uncertainty around exact resolution thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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