Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—the weakest pace in over three years—has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands for Q3, reflecting persistent domestic softness in retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and industrial output amid a prolonged property downturn. Resilient exports, supported by global AI-driven demand for technology goods, have provided a partial offset, while the July Politburo meeting signaled stepped-up fiscal measures to bolster consumption and infrastructure. Leading indicators such as the Conference Board LEI continue to contract, underscoring downside risks, though market-implied odds price in modest stabilization from policy support ahead of the October 20 preliminary release. Full-year consensus forecasts cluster near 4.4-4.8%.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4.3-4.6% 54%
4.6-4.9% 35%
4.0-4.3% 8.7%
3.7-4.0% 1.4%
$37,109 Vol.
$37,109 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
1%
4.0-4.3%
9%
4.3-4.6%
54%
4.6-4.9%
35%
4.9-5.2%
1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 54%
4.6-4.9% 35%
4.0-4.3% 8.7%
3.7-4.0% 1.4%
$37,109 Vol.
$37,109 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$1,402 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,603 Vol.
1%
4.0-4.3%
$2,959 Vol.
9%
4.3-4.6%
$13,986 Vol.
54%
4.6-4.9%
$9,546 Vol.
35%
4.9-5.2%
$3,883 Vol.
1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,605 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—the weakest pace in over three years—has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands for Q3, reflecting persistent domestic softness in retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and industrial output amid a prolonged property downturn. Resilient exports, supported by global AI-driven demand for technology goods, have provided a partial offset, while the July Politburo meeting signaled stepped-up fiscal measures to bolster consumption and infrastructure. Leading indicators such as the Conference Board LEI continue to contract, underscoring downside risks, though market-implied odds price in modest stabilization from policy support ahead of the October 20 preliminary release. Full-year consensus forecasts cluster near 4.4-4.8%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$37,109Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—the weakest pace in over three years—has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands for Q3, reflecting persistent domestic softness in retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and industrial output amid a prolonged property downturn. Resilient exports, supported by global AI-driven demand for technology goods, have provided a partial offset, while the July Politburo meeting signaled stepped-up fiscal measures to bolster consumption and infrastructure. Leading indicators such as the Conference Board LEI continue to contract, underscoring downside risks, though market-implied odds price in modest stabilization from policy support ahead of the October 20 preliminary release. Full-year consensus forecasts cluster near 4.4-4.8%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$37,109Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—the weakest pace in over three years—has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands for Q3, reflecting persistent domestic softness in retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and industrial output amid a prolonged property downturn. Resilient exports, supported by global AI-driven demand for technology goods, have provided a partial offset, while the July Politburo meeting signaled stepped-up fiscal measures to bolster consumption and infrastructure. Leading indicators such as the Conference Board LEI continue to contract, underscoring downside risks, though market-implied odds price in modest stabilization from policy support ahead of the October 20 preliminary release. Full-year consensus forecasts cluster near 4.4-4.8%.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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