China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, firing a JL-2 or JL-3 SLBM with a dummy warhead from the South China Sea across roughly 7,300 km into the South Pacific. Beijing described the event as routine annual training with advance notifications to relevant parties, though the short-notice approach drew protests from the United States, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Pacific island nations concerned about regional stability. This marked only the second publicly acknowledged long-range Chinese ballistic missile launch into international waters since 1980, following a 2024 ICBM test. No additional tests have been reported since July, consistent with China's historically infrequent cadence for such demonstrations. Traders therefore assign an 81% probability that no further ballistic missile launch meeting the market criteria will occur before December 31.
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China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
19% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
19% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, firing a JL-2 or JL-3 SLBM with a dummy warhead from the South China Sea across roughly 7,300 km into the South Pacific. Beijing described the event as routine annual training with advance notifications to relevant parties, though the short-notice approach drew protests from the United States, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Pacific island nations concerned about regional stability. This marked only the second publicly acknowledged long-range Chinese ballistic missile launch into international waters since 1980, following a 2024 ICBM test. No additional tests have been reported since July, consistent with China's historically infrequent cadence for such demonstrations. Traders therefore assign an 81% probability that no further ballistic missile launch meeting the market criteria will occur before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$6,925Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, firing a JL-2 or JL-3 SLBM with a dummy warhead from the South China Sea across roughly 7,300 km into the South Pacific. Beijing described the event as routine annual training with advance notifications to relevant parties, though the short-notice approach drew protests from the United States, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Pacific island nations concerned about regional stability. This marked only the second publicly acknowledged long-range Chinese ballistic missile launch into international waters since 1980, following a 2024 ICBM test. No additional tests have been reported since July, consistent with China's historically infrequent cadence for such demonstrations. Traders therefore assign an 81% probability that no further ballistic missile launch meeting the market criteria will occur before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$6,925Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, firing a JL-2 or JL-3 SLBM with a dummy warhead from the South China Sea across roughly 7,300 km into the South Pacific. Beijing described the event as routine annual training with advance notifications to relevant parties, though the short-notice approach drew protests from the United States, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Pacific island nations concerned about regional stability. This marked only the second publicly acknowledged long-range Chinese ballistic missile launch into international waters since 1980, following a 2024 ICBM test. No additional tests have been reported since July, consistent with China's historically infrequent cadence for such demonstrations. Traders therefore assign an 81% probability that no further ballistic missile launch meeting the market criteria will occur before December 31.
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